IT Strategy资讯科技策略

To help maximize ROI for the Enterprise Applications for the CIOs Forester in a report titled 帮助的最大投资报酬率，为企业申请的CIO福雷斯特在一份报告中名为 Enterprise Software in 2017 企业软件在2017 tries to look into the crystal ball to predict the future of Enterprise Application (EA). 尝试看看水晶球预测未来的企业应用（ ea ）条。 Also, read concise overview of that report in the article by Enterprise Systems titled 此外，阅读的简明概述了该报告在文章中，由企业系统名为 Enterprise Software Future profiled in Report 企业软件未来的异型在报告 . 。

Using a scenario-based planning approach, Forrester introduces three scenarios to predict what the dominant vendors, market dynamics, and prices may be in 2017 使用基于场景的规划方法， Forrester公司介绍了3种情况来预测什么占主导地位的供应商，市场动态，和价格可能在2017年

1. Increased consolidation, diminished innovation, and high prices. 巩固提高，削弱了创新和高价格。
2. A new, large vendor enters to challenge IBM, Microsoft, Oracle, and SAP; stimulate innovation; and keep price increases at bay. 一个新的，大的供应商进入挑战IBM ，微软， Oracle以及SAP等;刺激创新和保持价格上升，在湾。
3. Upheaval of today’s largest vendors, rapid innovation, and steep price declines. 动乱，今天的最大供应商，快速创新，陡峭的价格下跌。

I don’t think, the above mentioned information by the Forester is going to be of any use for the IT executives. It’s similar to asking a Wall Street Investment expert as to where the DOW Industrial Average might be in couple of years. You don’t want the answer “DOW could go up, or stay flat or go down”. That’s exactly what the Forester report predicts in the above 3 scenarios. Is there a great insight here? I would like to know what the probability of scenario 1 is v/s scenario 2 and scenario 3. 我不认为，上述资料由福雷斯特，将会对任何使用，为IT经理。它的类似要求华尔街投资专家的地方，道琼斯工业平均指数可能会在数年。您不想回答“道琼工业指数可能上升，或留单位或走” ，这究竟福雷斯特报告预测，在上述3情景。是有一个伟大的洞察力在这里出现？我想知道是什么概率的情形1是v / s的方案2和方案3 。 Maybe if you buy the report for $279 you will get the detailed answer, I guess… 也许如果您购买的报告二七九美元你会得到详细的答案，我猜…

Let’s look at the 3 scenarios and apply 让我们看看在第3的情况和适用 Porter’s 5 Forces for Industry Analysis 波特的五力量的行业分析 . 。 If Scenario 1 were to come to fruition, Supplier Power will come into play. Larger organizations that are on these EA platforms, due to high switching cost may agree to pay higher price. But will they put up with low innovation or no innovation from EA Vendors? In a hyper competitive globalization environment large firms cannot afford to take their eyes off the competitive landscape. New firms with disruptive technology will come to the fore fast and from unknown places. If the EA Vendors consolidate and reduce innovation, larger organizations that use those Enterprise Applications will be stuck with older slower moving technology. They will not be able to compete to fast changing environment. Thus Buyers Power will trump Supplier Power in this case and large firms will continue to pressure EA Vendors to innovate. There is a symbiotic relationship between large organization and EA vendors. Failure of one will lead to failure of the other. Hence Scenario 1 is out (Well, EA vendors can raise price but cannot afford NOT to innovate). 如果情况一人来的成果，供应商的权力来发挥作用。较大的组织正在就这些环境平台 ， 由于高开关成本可能同意支付更高的代价，但他们会提出与低创新或没有创新，从环境评估供应商呢？在一个超竞争的环境，全球化的大公司不能采取他们眼中小康的竞争格局。新的企业与破坏性的技术会来前列快速从未知的地方，如果环境评估供应商巩固和减少创新，较大的组织使用这些企业应用将坚持与老年人慢移动技术，他们将无法竞争，瞬息万变的环境，因此，买家的权力将王牌供应商的权力在这种情况下和大型企业将继续供应商的压力，环境创新是有共生的关系，庞大的组织和EA的供应商。失败，一会导致失败，其他，因此情形1是（以及和EA厂商可以提高价格，但不能没有创新） 。

There is always a possibility for some large new vendor, that may decide to challenge existing EA vendors (Google?). But again huge switching cost will discourage large firms from embracing a new vendor unless the new application radically simplifies implementation and integration of EA software. Remember extremely draconian implementation and integration of Enterprise Application that causes firms to fear changing EA vendors. Hence Barriers to Entry to the new EA Vendor is high. So Scenario 2 is out. 始终存在着一种可能性，为一些新的大型供应商，即可能决定挑战现有的环境评估供应商（ Google吗？ ） 。但同样庞大的切换成本将劝阻大型企业从概括性的一个新的供应商，除非新的应用从根本上简化了实施和集成EA的软件。记得非常严苛的实施和集成的企业应用，导致企业害怕改变环境的供应商，因此进入壁垒，以新的环境评估供应商是高，所以情况2 。

We will continue to see rapid innovation. As mentioned in my blog 我们将继续看到快速的创新。正如我在博客 2008, Year for Mass Adoption for SaaS 2008年，今年为大规模采用为saas , this year might be the breakout year for SaaS – disruptive delivery model that will challenge traditional EA delivery model. In fact, it’s that Holy Grail that has the potential to simplify implementation and integration problems all firms face. Diminishing computing power, storage cost will continue to lower barriers for the competitors and we will continue to see new and disruptive applications. Better collaborative tools will lead to lean and agile Open Source Solution. All of this will continue to challenge Enterprise Application as we know it. I think, Scenario 3 is the only viable option. ，今年可能突破的一年， saas -破坏性的交付模式，将挑战传统环境的交付模式。事实上，它的表示，圣杯有可能简化实施和集成的问题，所有企业面对的问题。递减的计算能力，存储成本将继续降低壁垒，为竞争者和我们将继续看到新的和破坏性的申请。更好的协作工具将导致精益和敏捷的开放源代码的解决办法。所有这一切都将继续挑战，企业应用，因为我们知道它，我觉得，案例3是唯一可行的选择。

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Tags:标签： Enterprise Application Future企业应用的未来 , ， EA环境评估 , ， Forester福雷斯特 , ， SaaS saas , ， On Demand Software Application对需求的应用软件 , ， Innovation创新 , ， Porter 5 Forces波特五力量 , ， , ， IT Strategy资讯科技策略 , ， CIO CIO的 , ， Information Technology信息技术 , ， Business Strategy商业策略

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